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What Surprises Are Coming in Monday’s Reports?

Author: Kristy

MARCH 29, 2014

By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor

The March 31 Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports are notorious for moving the markets. This year, many are predicting major shifts in acreage mixes, at least on a regional level.

Headed into the reports, Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the markets have paused and are going sideways until another fundamental event happens somewhere in the world. “We’ll get that Monday morning,” he says.

Unpriced grain, transportation issues, basis levels and spring planting weather will all contribute to what farmers decide to fill their planters with this spring. “North of I-90, there is a lot of grain in the bin,” he says. “If you are one of those farmers who is sitting on 80% of last year’s production and it is unpriced, do you really want to plant more of the same variety?”

Farmers are facing monumental transportation issues in the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota, where producers can’t even get the trains to move grain, Gulke says. These issues are resulting in extremely poor basis. In some areas, basis is at $1.18 or $1.20. “You take that off $4.90 and that doesn’t work well,” he says.  READ MORE

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